Exterior evaluation of Turkish politics usually tends to concentrate on the divide between political Islamism and secularism, between liberals and conservatives.
However taking a look at Turkish politics at the moment, there’s one ideology that’s represented throughout the board: nationalism.
Nationalists, within the type of the Nationalist Motion Get together (MHP) and its chief Devlet Bahceli, are the primary allies of Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan.
Former MHP members who break up with the get together over its help for Erdogan went on to type the Iyi Get together in 2017, now a key a part of the opposition alliance.
One other ex-MHP member, Sinan Ogan, has been labelled because the “kingmaker” forward of the presidential run-off scheduled for Might 28 after he surprisingly received greater than 5 % within the first spherical of presidential elections on Sunday.
After which there are nationalists of a special flavour – left-wing Kurdish nationalists of the Peoples’ Democratic Get together (HDP), who fought the election beneath the banner of the Yesil Sol Get together.
Even earlier than Ogan’s emergence, the presence of Turkish nationalists on the centre of the 2 major alliances that fought the elections has allowed the ideology to have a better impact on either side of the talk.
It has led to a tougher push from either side to resolve the difficulty of roughly 3.7 million Syrian refugees dwelling in Turkey — with each Erdogan and his opponent within the presidential run-off, Kemal Kilicdaroglu, tacking to the fitting on the difficulty previously 12 months.
A mixture of anti-refugee sentiment and financial hardships has even led to stress on politicians to ship Syrians again to their dwelling nation, regardless of the continued rule there of President Bashar al-Assad, and even a spike in violence in direction of individuals perceived to be Syrian.
Turkish nationalists have additionally been capable of seize on those self same financial issues to foment xenophobic attitudes in direction of different refugee and migrant populations, and anti-Arab attitudes are additionally on the rise, each on the left and the fitting.
Ogan himself has already referenced “terrorism” as a pink line for his help within the second spherical – a transparent reference to Kurdish teams. Whereas Erdogan’s AK Get together included politicians from the predominantly Kurdish Huda-Par Islamist get together in its parliamentary candidate lists, this will likely be extra of an issue for Kilicdaroglu, who obtained an enormous quantity of help from HDP voters and can wrestle to win over Ogan voters with out dropping Kurdish help.
Islamic motion changed by nationalism?
Turkish nationalism has at all times been current within the post-Ottoman Republic of Turkey however actually gained its personal distinct path after the emergence of former military colonel Alparslan Turkes within the Nineteen Sixties.
Turkes based the MHP, which, together with its paramilitary organisation, the Gray Wolves, fought leftist teams within the Nineteen Seventies. The Gray Wolves has gone on to be designated a “terrorist” group in Kazakhstan and banned in France, with requires a “terrorist” designation to even be utilized within the wider European Union and the USA. The Turkish authorities has denied the group’s existence.
Whereas the MHP has moderated beneath Bahceli, it’s nonetheless thought-about to be a hardline nationalist motion, the presence of which has pushed the Turkish authorities additional to the fitting.
This was not at all times the case – the MHP opposed Erdogan’s peace course of with the Kurdistan Employees’ Get together (PKK) within the early 2010s.
However from 2015 onwards, as soon as the peace course of broke down, and significantly after the failed coup towards Erdogan in 2016, the MHP grew to become a agency ally.
In that sense, the MHP changed the group that has largely been blamed for the coup, the Gulenists – who have been as soon as Erdogan’s shut companions.
Bahceli has changed figures like former president Abdullah Gul and former prime minister Ahmet Davutoglu, males who have been pivotal in Erdogan’s rise however who ultimately break up with him.
Davutoglu himself was well-known for his “zero issues with neighbours” overseas coverage. The Arab Spring, and a need to help teams with a background in political Islam, comparable to Ennahdha in Tunisia and the Muslim Brotherhood in Egypt, ended that.
However the progress in energy of the nationalist narrative additionally contributed to Turkey entrenching itself militarily combating the PKK and its associates in Syria and Iraq, whereas a need to challenge Turkish energy has additionally seen disputes emerge outdoors of the Center East, most notably within the jap Mediterranean.
All of it signifies that whereas Erdogan’s roots in political Islam can by no means be discounted and proceed to be enticing to home conservatives, Turkish nationalism is arguably the stronger ideology inside the Turkish authorities and can proceed to be going ahead.
What comes subsequent?
Erdogan is now anticipated to win the run-off towards Kilicdaroglu on Might 28, having defied the expectations of the pollsters to emerge inside a proportion level of successful the presidential election within the first spherical outright.
However the Turkish chief, who has led the nation for 20 years, will flip 70 subsequent 12 months and will likely be 74 on the time of the following presidential election in 2028. Ideas will certainly be turning to who his successor will likely be.
It’s a large downside for the AK Get together, which seems rudderless with out Erdogan. Whereas his recognition has usually held regular, the get together’s has dipped, shedding voters to nationalist events.
Throughout the get together, nobody has Erdogan’s gravitas or recognition.
Some analysts predict that because of this the trail will open for a member of the Republican Folks’s Get together (CHP), maybe somebody like Istanbul’s mayor Ekrem Imamoglu, and that Erdogan’s successor will come from the left.
However it’s Turkish nationalism that’s on the ascendancy, in each the federal government and opposition camps, which makes it extra probably that successor will emerge from the fitting.